On The Verge Of The Copper Renaissance

Zambia recently celebrated 100 years of mining, while this is a remarkable milestone draped in pride and history it also underscores a tale of unmet potential. In the 1960 and 70s Chile and Zambia had similar copper outputs, today Chile produces 5.5 million tons annually, dwarfing Zambia's 2024 production of around 700,000 tons.

Driven by this stark contrast and the opportunities of the energy transition, the Government of the Republic of Zambia (GRZ)  has set a target of  epic proportions : increase copper production to 3 million tons per year by 2031. This is the engine of a broader national vision to achieve prosperous middle-income status by 2030, driven by economic diversification anchored in mining, agriculture, manufacturing, and tourism.

This is more than an extraction goal. The GRZ's strategy is to "maximize benefits for Zambia and expand Zambian participation in the entire Energy Transition Mineral (ETM) value chain." This signifies a crucial shift from being a mere exporter of raw ores to becoming a hub for processing, manufacturing, and innovation, ensuring that more of the mineral's final value is captured within its borders.

The global push to decarbonize is, at its core, a story of materials. A World Bank report, "The Growing Role of Minerals and Metals for a Low-Carbon Future," makes this clear: a shift to a 2°C future could increase demand for certain metals by more than 1000%. The report states that a "green technology future has the potential to be materially intensive," and copper sits at the very center of this new landscape.

Its unrivalled conductivity makes it indispensable:

Electric Vehicles (EVs): While hybrid vehicles use lead and hydrogen powered vehicles use platinum, electric vehicles are fundamentally dependent on lithium and, crucially, copper. An EV requires about three times more copper than a traditional car. If the 80 million cars sold worldwide in 2018 had all been electric, it would have required an additional 6 million tonnes of copper. With projections of 100 million more electric cars on the road by 2035, the sustained demand is immense.

Renewable Power Infrastructure: Renewable energy systems are, on average, five times more copper-intensive than conventional power generation. A single 660-kilowatt wind turbine contains roughly 350 kg of copper, and a large wind farm can contain up to 6 million kilograms. Solar power is just as hungry; photovoltaic plants use nearly 6 tonnes of copper per megawatt. Without copper, we simply wouldn't have the tools to make a transition to fossil fuel alternatives effective enough to be compelling.

Inherent Sustainability: Copper is a champion of the circular economy,with its infinite life cycle, is a 100 percent recyclable material that can be used over and over again without any loss of its chemical or physical properties. The recycling process uses only 20% of the energy required for primary production. In 2010, close to half of Europe's copper demand was met through recycling, a model Zambia can integrate into its own long-term strategy.

Recognizing the complexity of this ambition, the GRZ requested the World Bank Group's support to create a practical roadmap. This collaborative effort outlines a comprehensive set of actions across several critical pillars:

Scaling Production: This goes beyond simply digging more mines. It involves a massive effort to map the entire country to improve the availability of geological data, attracting credible investors through a stable climate, and leveraging limited public resources to mobilize private capital at scale.

Maximizing Benefits: For too long, the link between mineral wealth and public prosperity has been weak. The new focus is on improving revenue capture and management, creating employment, supporting SMEs with capacity building and access to finance, and implementing robust community development programs.

Expanding Infrastructure and Skills: The ambition will fail without reliable, cost-competitive, and clean power, as well as efficient transport and logistics. Concurrently, a major upskilling of the national workforce is essential to fill the jobs of the future.

Addressing Social and Environmental Risks: The World Bank report warns that increased extraction "could have significant impacts on local water systems, ecosystems, and communities." Zambia's roadmap emphasizes strengthening agencies that monitor these risks and integrating sustainability and recycling into the core of new operations.

The current "New Dawn" government, elected in 2021, is acutely aware that past inconsistency in mining policy has eroded investor confidence. Its strategy is built on reversing this legacy. Key goals include:

• Reforming the mining tax and administration to promote a "competitive, stable and predictable policy environment."

  
  

• Enhancing monitoring mechanisms to accurately determine the volume and content of minerals extracted.

  
  

• Promoting small-scale mining and increasing local ownership and participation in the value chain.

  
  

• Securing adequate energy supply for the sector, a critical bottleneck.

The government is already acting. In 2023, the Ministry of Mines and Mineral Development approved 1,840 mining and non-mining rights, and it has launched an online application platform to foster efficiency and transparency in licensing.

While copper and cobalt dominate the narrative, Zambia's mineral portfolio is remarkably diverse, offering a buffer against market volatility. Investment opportunities abound in

• Precious Metals: Gold, silver, and selenium.

• The Platinoid Group: Iron, tin, nickel, and manganese.

• Agro-minerals: Rock phosphate and limestone for fertilizer production.

• Gemstones: World-renowned emeralds, amethyst, aquamarine, and tourmaline.

• Reclamation: Profitable opportunities exist in reclaiming copper from historical slag and tailing dumps.

  
  

The path is fraught with challenges. Zambia's economy is reeling from an "unsustainable debt burden," the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, and most recently, a "devastating climate-change-induced drought." These crises strain public finances and infrastructure.

Furthermore, the nation is entering a competitive global arena. There is "growing competition... among African countries themselves," and the U.S. administration is "intensifying its focus on Africa's critical minerals... as it diversifies away from China." One of the biggest challenges for Zambia will be deciding where to focus its efforts amidst this wide range of prospects and geopolitical interests.

The green revolution presents a generational opportunity for Zambia. The demand for copper is not a transient boom but a fundamental pillar of the next half-century of technological development. With some of the world's highest-grade copper deposits (2-3% versus a global average of 0.8%), the potential is undeniable.

The question is no longer if Zambia can be a major miner, but how it will mine. By adopting sustainable techniques, prioritizing value addition, ensuring environmental stewardship, and sharing benefits fairly with its citizens, Zambia can transcend the "resource curse." It can leverage its red metal not only to power the world's clean energy future but to ignite its own sustainable and inclusive economic dawn. The world's green future, it turns out, may very well be forged in the copper-rich heart of Zambia.

By Itati G Dzekedzeke

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